FED Meeting on July 19 2025: 96.9% Chance of No Interest Rate Hike

The Federal Reserve's upcoming FOMC meeting on July 19, 2025, is expected to result in no change to interest rates, with veteran trader Matthew Dixon citing a 96.9% probability of maintaining the target range at 4.25%–4.50%. Market sentiment aligns with this outlook, as the Fed appears inclined to hold steady while monitoring economic indicators.

Dixon's analysis, shared on X, also notes a marginal 3.1% chance of a 25 basis-point cut, while completely dismissing the possibility of a hike. This follows the June FOMC meeting, where the Fed held rates firm despite internal divisions over future cuts.

The central bank's cautious stance reflects a broader wait-and-see approach, with implications for risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Traders are pricing in prolonged stability, reducing near-term volatility expectations across digital asset markets.